Probabilistic estimating is a project management method for figuring out how much a project will cost or how long it will take by looking at the probability distribution of possible values. Probabilistic estimating takes into account the fact that project estimates are always uncertain by using a range of values with associated probabilities. Deterministic estimating, on the other hand, uses a single value for each estimate.
In probabilistic estimating, estimates are made based on a statistical analysis of historical data, expert judgment, or other sources of information. With this information, a probability distribution is made that shows the range of possible values and how likely they are to happen. The normal distribution, the beta distribution, and the triangular distribution are the three probability distributions that are used most often in probabilistic estimating.
Usage
It is used in Projec Planning / Estimating Effort, Cost, and Time
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